At the opening of the week, the Euro rose to an unexpected high, despite disagreement amongst their treasury. Experts are predicting that because of the volatile forex market, the US dollar stands to make a comeback- if not by the end of this week, then in the very near future.
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The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) has pulled back against the Euro, but strong forex market volatility expectations suggest that the safe-haven USD may rally to fresh highs in the week ahead.
DailyFX Individual Currency Pair Conditions and Trading Strategy Bias
DailyFX PLUS System Trading Signals –The US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) has surged to fresh multi-year highs as strong forex market volatility favors the safe-haven currency. The highest forex market volatility expectations since January favors a further flight to safety and US Dollar strength through the foreseeable future.
Our preference remains to look for breakout trading opportunities, and indeed our bias remains unchanged since last week when we favored the same high-volatility strategies. In particular we like the “Breakout Opportunities” (Breakout2) system on our sentiment-based forex trading signals systems.
Our research shows that Range Trading systems—buying currencies that have fallen and selling those that have strengthened—tend to do poorly during volatile markets. That leaves us little choice but to trade any “Congestion Opportunities” (Range2) trades with caution in the days ahead.
Volatility has historically shown a tendency to drive performance in Range and Breakout strategies, but its effects on Trend-based strategies are less clear-cut. A continued US Dollar uptrend would nonetheless favor systems such as “Trend Follower” (Momentum1) and “Tidal Shift” (Momentum2) in the days ahead.
Market Conditions:
Forex options market volatility expectations continue near their highest levels of the year, and such sustained calls for currency breakouts give us firm conviction in our calls for major moves. In such an environment we will avoid range trading and attempting to pick tops and bottoms.
This in particular suggests that attempting to sell into US Dollar strength seems ill-advised. Past performance is NOT indicative of future results, but we will err on the side of caution and trade into the broader USD uptrend.
Definitions
Volatility Percentile – The higher the number, the more likely we are to see strong movements in price. This number tells us where current implied volatility levels stand in relation to the past 90 days of trading. We have found that implied volatilities tend to remain very high or very low for extended periods of time. As such, it is helpful to know where the current implied volatility level stands in relation to its medium-term range.
Trend – This indicator measures trend intensity by telling us where price stands in relation to its 90 trading-day range. A very low number tells us that price is currently at or near monthly lows, while a higher number tells us that we are near the highs. A value at or near 50 percent tells us that we are at the middle of the currency pair’s monthly range.
Range High – 90-day closing high.
Range Low – 90-day closing low.
Last – Current market price.
Bias – Based on the above criteria, we assign the more likely profitable strategy for any given currency pair. A highly volatile currency pair (Volatility Percentile very high) suggests that we should look to use Breakout strategies. More moderate volatility levels and strong Trend values make Momentum trades more attractive, while the lowest Vol Percentile and Trend indicator figures make Range Trading the more attractive strategy.
Earlier in the week, the euro bounced back against the US dollar, after it found some support following heavy losses. This even comes as Europe’s leaders are still arguing over how to keep Spain’s banks out of a new bailout program. On Monday, the euro traded up from $1.2423 last Friday to $1.2494. This push back for the euro from the dollar also triggered the US treasury to yield off of their all-time lows. The ten year Treasury bond raised to 1.53 percent from a recent 1.47 percent.
The strong volatility in the forex market may change that by the closing of the week and the US dollar may already be on its way to reaching new highs. This current state of the forex market is expected to be its highest volatility since January of this year. The strength of the US dollar is expected to increase in the very near future.
Meanwhile, Europe is remaining divided over how to use the European Stability Mechanism- the regional financial firewall, to offer Span’s banks a bailout sans putting added financial burden on the government.
President Obama is calling action on this matter and expressed that he believes that the Europeans have the capacity to resolve this matter. Obama has also expressed that he believes that serious risks remain and markets are continuing to remain skeptical.
US treasury officials have noted that the leaders of Europe seem to be moving forwards with a much needed sense of urgency with this matter- they hope to see quickly moving action over the upcoming weeks.
Against this news, the yen fell against the Euro and the dollar; the yen went from 78.08 on Friday to 78.08 at opening on Monday.
Do you think a rebound of the dollar is going to happen? Is the market too volatile to really matter at this time?
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