Following the lead of the euro- the U.S. dollar got much weaker early this week as a result of the Federal stimulus view. The euro has no recovered against the dollar, and the Australian dollar surges to a 6-week high versus the U.S. dollar- this all comes as the nation has been focused on foreign markets instead of our own for the past month.
FOREX-Dollar broadly weaker on Fed stimulus view
Tue Jun 19, 2012 9:31am EDT
* Euro recovers vs dollar as Fed meeting eyed
* Australian dollar rises to 6-week high vs dollar
* Euro zone data, news add to bearish picture
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 19 (Reuters) – The dollar fell across the
board on Tuesday on expectations the Federal Reserve may ease
monetary policy further after a series of disappointing economic
Analysts expect the Fed to extend its long-term bond-buying
through Operation Twist by a few months from the current
deadline of June. The Fed’s rate-setting committee starts its
two-day meeting on Tuesday.
The euro rose as a result of these expectations, despite a
weak German economic sentiment survey. But its gains looked
vulnerable to the persistent stream of negative news out of the
euro zone. Nervous investors awaited the result of Greek
coalition negotiations that may lead to the country’s bailout
terms being renegotiated.
“There is positioning ahead of the Fed with the dollar
unable to capitalize on euro negative sentiment ahead of the
Fed,” said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth
Foreign Exchange in Washington. “The risk is relatively high
that (Fed) officials will signal the need for more stimulus.”
The euro was last up 0.5 percent on the day at
$1.2640 after hitting session highs of $1.2647. Support is seen
around $1.2536, the trendline drawn below daily lows from June
1, and the 21-day moving average at $1.2530.
Strategists, however, said the euro would struggle to rally
beyond the one-month high of $1.2748 posted on Monday after a
win for pro-bailout parties in the Greek election, given the
dire economic outlook and worries about Spain’s banking system.
News that a second, more detailed audit of Spanish banks
would be delayed until September fuelled more bearishness
towards the euro zone’s fourth-largest economy, whose 10-year
borrowing costs have ballooned above 7 percent.
Spain’s Treasury sold 12- and 18-month debt on Tuesday at
higher yields of over 5 percent, c ompared with just under 3
percent in a previous auction in May. It will sell between 1
billion and 2 billion euros of bonds on Thursday.
“We believe sustained high yields will eventually force
Spain into taking a full-fledged bailout,” wrote Brown Brothers
Harriman in a note, adding that the delay in the results of
Spain’s banking sector audit would not sit well with investors.
“The market simply does not have this kind of patience.”
Investors were also unnerved after a German court said the
government had not consulted parliament sufficiently about the
configuration of Europe’s permanent bailout
“The market has taken this negatively,” said Gavin Friend,
currency strategist at National Australia Bank, referring to the
comments from the German court.
“We would like more details but the market wants to shoot
first and ask questions later. This could curtail the ESM’s
powers and comes during nervous times when the impasse between
the German view and that of the peripherals and the world is
The euro earlier fell briefly after the German ZEW survey,
which showed economic sentiment posted its biggest monthly drop
since 1998 in June in a sign that even the bloc’s strongest
economy was not immune from the crisis.
FED EASING EYED
The Fed will announce its policy decision on Wednesday and
some market players have speculated it could opt for a third
round of quantitative easing as Europe’s troubles pose a risk to
growth in the world’s largest economy.
Another round of monetary stimulus would weigh on the U.S.
dollar and boost growth-linked currencies like the Australian
The dollar index, which measures the greenback
against a basket of major currencies, was down 0.4 percent at
81.651, having struck a one-month low of 81.266 on Monday.
The dollar edged lower against the yen, easing 0.1 percent
to 78.98 yen. A drop below 78.61 yen will take it to its
lowest in two weeks.
The greenback weakness came as interest rate differentials
moved against it on expectations of more Fed easing. Those
expectations saw the growth-related Australian dollar
jump to a six-week high of US$1.0147.
Meanwhile, against the backdrop of slowing growth, the
world’s major economies, or G20, are set to urge Europe to take
“all necessary policy measures” to resolve its woes and U.S.
President Barack Obama requested a meeting with its leaders.
Not to be upstaged by the fall of the euro, the U.S. dollar fell on Tuesday based upon projections from the Federal Reserve that may ease monetary policy even more after an onslaught of negative information about the U.S. economy. Experts are predicting that the Fed will extend the long-term bond-buying past the deadline of June. Traders will know more after the conclusion of the two daylong meeting of the Fed’s rating setting committee. Currently, experts predict that the Fed officials will announce the need for more stimulus funds.
Even though no one expected it to late Monday, the euro rose as a result of the negative news about the American market- this is in spite of turmoil in the European markets. The gains could be temporary as there is a constant flow of negative news in the euro zone. Investors are nervously awaiting the results of a renegotiated bailout term for Spain- and all eyes are still on the Italian currency in the wake of a troubled economy in Italy.
Last week, the euro was up, and then fell Monday against the U.S. dollar after an unsettling conclusion to the elections in Greece. The euro was up 0.5% on Tuesday for a high of $1.2647. The 21 day average for the euro is $1.2530. Experts predict that the euro would fail to surpass the current one-month high of $1.2748 posted late Monday after the pro-bailout win in the Greek elections. The dire European economy and worries about the banking system in Spain will likely keep the euro from reaching new highs.
Do you think there’s any hope for positive news from the Fed anytime soon?